TrueCar
Mar 24, 2017

March Auto Sales Expected to Reflect Continued Momentum

SANTA MONICA, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- ALG, the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects total new vehicle sales, including fleet deliveries, will reach 1,585,800 units in March, up 0.2 percent from a year ago.

This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 16.9 million units for the month, up 1.6 percent from a 16.7 million-unit SAAR a year ago. Excluding fleet sales, U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks grew 1.0 percent with 1,275,806 units.

"Auto sales in the first quarter of 2017 are humming along and deliveries are in line with our expectations for the full calendar year," said Eric Lyman, ALG's chief industry analyst. "March faced a number of challenges, including winter storms that disabled dealerships in the Northeast for days, delayed tax refund payments and rising interest rates. Despite these headwinds, the industry managed to squeak out a slight gain year over year."

Incentive spending by automakers averaged an estimated $3,511 per vehicle in March, up 13.4 percent from a year ago, and down 2.1 percent from February 2017.

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment is at 97.6 this month compared to 96.3 in February which indicates continued confidence in the health of the U.S. economy. Other key factors for positive economic conditions include the March unemployment rate which came in at 4.7 percent combined with a favorable average gas price of $2.29 recorded for this current week.

Other key findings for March:

Forecasts for the 12 largest manufacturers by volume:

Total Unit Sales

   

Manufacturer

   

March

2017 Forecast

   

March 2016

   

% Change vs.

March 2016

BMW     33,500     34,870     -3.9%
Daimler     33,500     31,715     5.6%
FCA     196,500     200,814     -2.1%
Ford     239,000     253,064     -5.6%
GM     266,000     252,128     5.5%
Honda     144,500     138,221     4.5%
Hyundai     74,700     75,310     -0.8%
Kia     57,000     58,279     -2.2%
Nissan     166,000     163,559     1.5%
Subaru     55,000     49,285     11.6%
Toyota     214,000     219,842     -2.7%
Volkswagen Group     52,600     49,850     5.5%

Industry

   

1,585,800

   

1,582,114

   

0.2%

           

Total Market Share

Manufacturer     March 2017 Forecast     March 2016     February 2017
BMW     2.1%     2.2%     1.9%
Daimler     2.1%     2.0%     2.1%
FCA     12.4%     12.7%     12.7%
Ford     15.1%     16.0%     15.6%
GM     16.8%     15.9%     17.8%
Honda     9.1%     8.7%     9.1%
Hyundai     4.7%     4.8%     3.9%
Kia     3.6%     3.7%     3.2%
Nissan     10.5%     10.3%     10.2%
Subaru     3.5%     3.1%     3.4%
Toyota     13.5%     13.9%     13.1%
Volkswagen Group     3.3%     3.2%     3.2%
           

Retail Unit Sales

 

Manufacturer

   

March 2017 Forecast

   

March 2016

   

YoY % Change

BMW     32,429     33,685     -3.7%
Daimler     31,189     29,086     7.2%
FCA     144,100     144,286     -0.1%
Ford     161,500     167,634     -3.7%
GM     198,377     191,548     3.6%
Honda     143,107     136,317     5.0%
Hyundai     56,688     57,191     -0.9%
Kia     47,000     46,855     0.3%
Nissan     123,831     121,928     1.6%
Subaru     52,275     47,361     10.4%
Toyota     186,720     191,286     -2.4%
Volkswagen Group     49,315     44,937     9.7%

Industry

   

1,275,806

   

1,263,479

   

1.0%

           

Incentive Spending

Manufacturer     Incentive per Unit Mar 2017 Forecast       Incentive per Unit Mar 2016       Incentive per Unit Feb 2017       Incentive per Unit % Change vs. Mar 2016       Incentive per Unit % Change vs. Feb 2017       Total Spending Mar 2017 Forecast
BMW     $4,514       $5,128       $4,245       -12.0%       6.3%       $151,205,893
Daimler     $4,151       $3,714       $4,111       11.8%       1.0%       $139,062,609
FCA     $4,327       $4,043       $4,362       7.0%       -0.8%       $837,354,067
Ford     $3,983       $3,509       $4,011       13.5%       -0.7%       $951,822,298
GM     $4,892       $4,029       $5,125       21.4%       -4.5%       $1,301,386,486
Honda     $1,941       $1,528       $1,886       27.0%       2.9%       $279,977,235
Hyundai     $2,341       $2,193       $2,342       6.7%       -0.1%       $174,850,961
Kia     $2,945       $2,838       $2,978       3.8%       -1.1%       $167,866,185
Nissan     $4,074       $3,466       $4,080       17.5%       -0.2%       $675,503,028
Subaru     $901       $568       $950       58.6%       -5.2%       $49,302,993
Toyota     $2,208       $2,082       $2,259       6.1%       -2.3%       $472,573,735
Volkswagen Group     $3,808       $3,348       $3,789       13.7%       0.5%       $199,489,449

Industry

   

$3,511

     

$3,096

     

$3,587

     

13.4%

     

-2.1%

     

$5,541,723,555

(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG's analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company's operations.)

About ALG

Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 50 years and in Canada since 1981.

TrueCar, Inc.
Veronica Cardenas
pressinquiries@truecar.com
424-258-2487
VCardenas@truecar.com

Source: TrueCar, Inc.

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