Aug 30, 2016

Asian Imports Gain Market Share in Summer Sell Down

Subaru likely to post biggest gain amid 2.1 percent retail sales decline

SANTA MONICA, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) projects total new vehicle sales, including fleet deliveries, will reach 1,544,900 units in August, down by 2.1 percent from a year ago.

This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 17.3 million units for the month, down from a 17.8 million-unit SAAR a year ago. Excluding fleet sales, U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks should decline 3.3 percent to 1,330,776 based on slower consumer demand.

"Despite sales beginning to cool off, the industry is still on pace for a record year," said Eric Lyman, TrueCar's chief industry analyst. "2015 delivered a 10-year high in August sales, so automakers faced a high hurdle to show year-over-year gains in August 2016."

Subaru may report the biggest year-over-year retail sales gain, as it is currently on pace for a 9 percent rise in volume. Toyota will likely follow with a 1.4 percent retail sales increase. Honda Motor Co., Ltd. may post the third-biggest gains, with a 0.5 percent increase in retail sales.

Total volume for non-luxury, mass-market brands will likely be down by 2 percent versus last year, while sales of luxury models may decline by 2.9 percent. The industry continues to be propelled by the utility vehicle and light truck segments, notably the compact crossovers and large utility vehicles.

Incentive spending by automakers averaged an estimated $3,331 per vehicle in August, up 7.7 percent from a year ago, though down 2.2 percent from July 2016.

"Full employment and stable consumer confidence combined with sustained low gas prices in the U.S. will continue to buoy the market for trucks and SUVs through the fall," said Morgan Hansen, TrueCar's forecaster and director of data science.

The Conference BoardConsumer Confidence Index is relatively unchanged in July at 97.3, down from 97.4 in June, and overall U.S. economic conditions remain healthy. July's unemployment rate was 4.9 percent, the lowest for that month in eight years, while gasoline prices remain favorable for consumers, falling to a national average of $2.21 per gallon on August 29 from $2.49 a year earlier.

Other key findings for August:

  • Registration mix is expected to be 86.1 percent retail sales and 13.9 percent fleet versus 87.2 percent retail and 12.8 percent fleet last July.
  • Total used auto sales, including franchise and independent dealerships and private-party transactions, may reach 3,304,916, up 2.3 percent from August 2015.

Forecasts for the 12 largest manufacturers by volume:

Total Unit Sales

Manufacturer

               

August 2016

Forecast

         

August 2015

         

% Change vs.

August 2015

(Daily Selling Rate)

BMW                 30,000           32,928           -8.9%
Daimler                 30,750           31,247           -1.6%
FCA                 201,900           202,917           -0.5%
Ford                 213,000           233,880           -8.9%
GM                 257,000           270,480           -5.0%
Honda                 157,000           155,491           1.0%
Hyundai                 71,500           72,012           -0.7%
Kia                 59,500           58,897           1.0%
Nissan                 132,000           133,351           -1.0%
Subaru                 58,500           52,697           11.0%
Toyota                 224,500           224,381           0.1%
Volkswagen Group                 51,250           56,453           -9.2%

Industry

               

1,544,900

         

1,577,407

         

-2.1%

                                   

Total Market Share

Manufacturer                

August 2016

Forecast

          August 2015           July 2016
BMW                 1.9%           2.1%           2.0%
Daimler                 2.0%           2.0%           2.1%
FCA                 13.1%           12.9%           11.9%
Ford                 13.8%           14.8%           14.1%
GM                 16.6%           17.1%           17.6%
Honda                 10.2%           9.9%           10.0%
Hyundai                 4.6%           4.6%           4.9%
Kia                 3.9%           3.7%           3.9%
Nissan                 8.5%           8.5%           8.7%
Subaru                 3.8%           3.3%           3.4%
Toyota                 14.5%           14.2%           14.1%
Volkswagen Group                 3.3%           3.6%           3.4%
                                   

Retail Unit Sales

Manufacturer

               

August 2016

Forecast

         

August 2015

         

% Change vs.

August 2015

(Daily Selling Rate)

BMW                 28,800           30,468           -5.5%
Daimler                 29,300           30,291           -3.2%
FCA                 151,900           165,135           -8.0%
Ford                 167,750           187,220           -10.4%
GM                 211,000           216,100           -2.4%
Honda                 155,000           154,268           0.5%
Hyundai                 54,500           55,973           -2.6%
Kia                 49,500           51,525           -3.9%
Nissan                 111,400           119,436           -6.7%
Subaru                 56,100           51,470           9.0%
Toyota                 212,750           209,759           1.4%
Volkswagen Group                 48,450           53,368           -9.2%

Industry

               

1,330,776

         

1,375,761

         

-3.3%

                                   

Incentive Spending

Manufacturer          

Incentive per Unit

August 2016

Forecast

         

Incentive per Unit

% Change vs.

August 2015

         

Incentive per Unit

% Change vs.

July 2016

         

Total Spending

August 2016

Forecast

BMW           $5,670           26.1%           -2.8%           $170,103,657
Daimler           $4,528           -1.6%           -3.4%           $139,236,898
FCA           $4,146           15.6%           -0.5%           $837,061,540
Ford           $4,084           17.7%           -1.4%           $869,923,091
GM           $4,355           7.9%           -4.6%           $1,119,344,136
Honda           $1,751           -17.4%           4.9%           $274,953,689
Hyundai           $2,595           2.2%           1.0%           $185,508,720
Kia           $2,714           -6.8%           -0.1%           $161,495,962
Nissan           $3,475           1.1%           -3.8%           $458,648,541
Subaru           $717           18.5%           7.5%           $41,951,322
Toyota           $2,370           7.3%           -1.9%           $532,121,203
Volkswagen Group           $3,793           23.9%           -2.3%           $194,387,954

Industry

         

$3,331

         

7.7%

         

-2.2%

         

$5,145,723,024

                                       

(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar's analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company's operations.)

About TrueCar

TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) is a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars and enables consumers to engage with TrueCar Certified Dealers who are committed to providing a superior purchase experience. TrueCar operates its own branded site and its nationwide network of more than 11,000 Certified Dealers also powers car-buying programs for some of the largest U.S. membership and service organizations, including USAA, AARP, American Express, AAA and Sam's Club. Over one-third of all new car buyers engage with the TrueCar network during their purchasing process. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with offices in San Francisco and Austin, Texas. For more information, go to www.truecar.com. Follow us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) | Email: pressinquiries@truecar.com

TrueCar, Inc.
Veronica Cardenas, 424-258-2487
VCardenas@truecar.com
pressinquiries@truecar.com

Source: TrueCar, Inc.

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