TrueCar’s ALG Forecasts New Auto Sales to Continue Modest Softening Amidst Rising Transaction Prices and Declining Incentives
SANTA MONICA, Calif.,
TrueCar, Inc.’s (NASDAQ: TRUE) data and analytics subsidiary, ALG, projects total new vehicle sales will reach 1,548,322 units in May, down 2.9% from a year ago. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 16.9 million units for the month. Excluding fleet sales, ALG expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,234,218 units, a decrease of 3.4% from a year ago.
“Despite a 50-year low in the unemployment rate and a 15-year high in consumer sentiment, the auto industry continues to face weakening in year-over-year sales,” said Oliver Strauss, Chief Economist for ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar. “From a historical perspective, however, 16.9 million SAAR is strong, especially considering a declining incentive and rising average transaction price environment.”
Additional Takeaways & Trends: (Forecasted by ALG)
- Automaker average incentive spend has declined for the 9th consecutive month compared to the same period a year ago and will reach
$3,359, down 10.1% or $377 dollarsyear-over-year, and down 1.4% or $47from April 2019
- Average transaction price (ATP) continues its ascent, up 3.4% or
- Incentives as a percentage of average transaction price are expected to be 9.8%, down 13.1% from a year ago and down 1.6% from
April 2019; All automakers are expected to be down except Honda, which will be up slightly ($3)year-over-year
- Kia and Hyundai are expected to score high amongst mainstream competitors in brand strength this month according to ALG’s Retail Health Index (RHI), driven largely by all-new or redesigned SUVs such as the Kia Telluride, Hyundai Santa Fe and Kona
- BMW stood out this month in ALG’s brand strength metric as well with high RHI scores amongst luxury brands which we believe is due to the launch of the all-new BMW X7 which hit showrooms last month
- Used vehicle sales for May are expected to reach 3,402,980, down 1.5% year-over-year yet up 2.3% from
“The few brands showing sales growth year-over-year in May are doing so through new or redesigned SUV product,” said Eric Lyman, Chief Analyst for ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar. “This underscores the importance of automaker timing around lifecycle stage and product strategy that honed in on desirable segments in order to meet the demands of today’s consumers.”
Retail Health Index (Forecast)
RHI measures the changes in retail market share relative to changes in incentive spending and transaction price to gauge whether OEMs are "buying" retail share through increased incentives, or whether share increases are largely demand-driven. An OEM with a positive RHI score is demonstrating a healthy balance of incentive spend relative to market share, either by holding incentive spending flat and increasing share or by increasing incentives with a higher positive increase in retail share.
Photos accompanying this announcement are available at:
Total Unit Sales
|Manufacturer||May 2019||May 2018||YoY %
Incentive Spending (Per Unit)
|Manufacturer||May 2019||May 2018||YOY %
Average Transaction Price (ATP)
|Manufacturer||May 2019||May 2018||April 2019||YOY %
For additional data visit the ALG Newsroom.
(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company’s operations.)
Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of
Source: TrueCar, Inc.