Oct 28, 2019

GM Strike and Lower Automaker Incentive Spend Contribute to Dip in October New Car Auto Sales, TrueCar’s ALG Forecasts

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Oct. 28, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- TrueCar, Inc.’s (NASDAQ: TRUE) data and analytics subsidiary, ALG, projects total new vehicle sales will reach 1,339,420 units in October 2019, down 4.7% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 16.6 million units. Excluding fleet sales, ALG expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,136,920 units, a decrease of 4.3% from a year ago when adjusted for selling days.

ALG, a TrueCar Company
ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada.


“Even though consumer sentiment has improved month-over-month, lower incentive spend this month compared with September and the GM strike are contributing to lower sales in October,” said Oliver Strauss, Chief Economist for ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar.

Additional Insights: (Forecast by ALG)

  • Among mainstream brands, Hyundai and Kia continue to show year-over-year sales growth and are expected to be up 9.8% and 5.4% respectively on total sales with lower incentives.
  • For luxury brands, Mercedes-Benz stands out and is expected to be up 7.3% year-over-year in total sales, and 12.4% in retail sales with incentives flat year-over-year.
    • Mercedes is expected to have a sales edge over BMW of close to 5,000 total unit sales for October as the race for the luxury sales leader ramps up moving toward the end of the year.
  • Tesla’s sales momentum continues to hold up despite difficult compares after last summer’s Model 3 ramp up. The electric automaker is expected to be up 18.4% in total units year-over-year.
  • GM and Nissan are forecast to be down 11.4% and 10.6% respectively in total unit sales compared to a year ago.
    • GM’s sales decline may be due to inventory availability related to the strike and shutdown of their factories.
    • Even with the largest expected dollar decline in incentives month-over-month, Nissan is still about 50% higher on incentives as a percentage of average transaction price than industry. Nissan’s fleet share is expected to reach 28% this month.
  • Average automaker incentive spend is expected to reach $3,767, up 4.7% or $170 dollars year-over-year, but down 5.1% or $204 from September 2019.
    • The most notable YoY declines in incentive spend are expected from Kia, Hyundai, and Nissan. Meanwhile FCA, GM, and Honda are expected to have double-digit incentive increases.
  • Used vehicle sales for October 2019 are expected to reach 3,439,074 up 3.7% from a year ago and up 0.2% from September 2019.

"The UAW strike has created a tricky sales landscape for GM. Incentives are down versus last month but are still elevated as the automaker competes for lucrative Fullsize Pickup share,” said Eric Lyman, Chief Industry Analyst at ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar. “With the strike just ended, GM isn’t out of the woods yet as dealers must work with aging inventory ahead of ramped up production to refresh their showrooms going into the busy end of year selling season."
             
October 2019 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers by volume: (Adjusted for same selling days as October 2018.) For additional data visit the ALG Newsroom.

Total Unit Sales

Manufacturer Oct 2019 Oct 2018 YoY % Change
(Days selling rate)
BMW  29,157  26,522 5.9%
Daimler  34,129  31,814 3.3%
FCA  172,913  177,391 -6.1%
Ford  183,394  191,682 -7.9%
GM  219,764  238,953 -11.4%
Honda  130,014  122,182 2.5%
Hyundai  58,220  53,025 5.7%
Kia  47,550  45,102 1.5%
Nissan  102,096  109,962 -10.6%
Subaru  55,702  55,394 -3.2%
Tesla  17,526  14,800 14.0%
Toyota  190,895  191,102 -3.8%
Volkswagen Group  51,527  50,251 -1.3%
Industry  1,339,420  1,353,846 -4.7%

Retail Unit Sales

Manufacturer Oct 2019 Oct 2018 YoY % Change
(Days selling rate)
BMW  26,814  25,623 4.6%
Daimler  33,056  29,412 12.4%
FCA  132,939  140,224 -5.2%
Ford  135,579  141,573 -4.2%
GM  181,242  184,321 -1.7%
Honda  127,012  120,085 5.8%
Hyundai  46,082  41,843 10.1%
Kia  42,167  38,337 10.0%
Nissan  73,694  87,270 -15.6%
Subaru  53,827  54,438 -1.1%
Tesla  17,526  14,800 18.4%
Toyota  172,264  173,131 -0.5%
Volkswagen Group  49,132  48,852 0.6%
Industry  1,136,920  1,143,761 -0.6%

Incentive Spending (Per Unit)

Manufacturer Oct 2019     Oct 2018 YoY % Change
BMW $5,683 $5,549   2.4%
Daimler $5,808 $5,806   0.0%
FCA $4,835 $4,356   11.0%
Ford $4,576 $4,400   4.0%
GM $4,683 $4,229   10.7%
Honda $2,167 $1,965   10.3%
Hyundai $2,565 $2,669   -3.9%
Kia $3,523 $3,749   -6.0%
Nissan $4,196 $4,326   -3.0%
Subaru $1,242 $1,165   6.6%
Toyota $2,458 $2,495   -1.5%
Volkswagen Group $3,824 $3,760   1.7%
Industry $3,767 $3,596   4.7%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company’s operations.)

About TrueCar
TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) is a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars and enables consumers to engage with TrueCar Certified Dealers who are committed to providing a superior purchase experience. TrueCar operates its own branded site and its nationwide network of more than 16,500 Certified Dealers, and also powers car-buying programs for some of the largest U.S. membership and service organizations, including USAA, AARP, American Express, AAA and Sam's Club. Nearly half of all new car buyers engage with the TrueCar network during their purchasing process. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with an office in Austin, Texas.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) | Email: pressinquiries@truecar.com

About ALG
Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 50 years and in Canada since 1981.

TrueCar and ALG PR Contact:
Shadee Malekafzali
shadee@truecar.com

 

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Source: TrueCar, Inc.