At June 2019 Year Midpoint TrueCar’s ALG Maintains 17M Annual SAAR New Car Sales Forecast
SANTA MONICA, Calif.,
For the second quarter of 2019, ALG expects new vehicle sales will reach 4,409,295 units, down slightly, at 2%, from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
“Increased incentive spending by several automakers in June in tandem with sustained strength in the underlying macro-economic indicators is helping drive resilient sales for both the month and quarter,” said Oliver Strauss, Chief Economist for ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar. “Given these factors, we are holding our initial forecast of 17M SAAR for 2019 made in January.”
Additional Takeaways & Trends: (Forecasted by ALG)
- Automaker average incentive spend will reach
$3,747, down 1% or $37 dollarsyear-over-year, and up 0.4% or $16from May 2019. However, several automakers increased incentive spend year-over-year in June, most notably Honda and Toyota, up 12.3% or $226and 3.5% or $80respectively.
- Average transaction price (ATP) should continue to rise, up 3.1% or
- Incentives as a percentage of average transaction price are expected to be 11%, down 3.9% from a year ago and up 0.6% from
- Kia is expected to continue to score high amongst mainstream competitors in brand strength this month according to ALG’s Retail Health Index (RHI). This is driven largely by the Kia Telluride helping drive Kia retail sales up 8.3% year-over-year. On the TrueCar platform, recent trends show the newly launched Telluride advanced to the second most visited new midsize SUV and 10th most visited new vehicle overall. The Telluride also became the most popular midsize SUV and 8th most popular vehicle overall that consumers elected to connect with TrueCar Certified Dealers to receive upfront pricing on vehicles in their inventory.*
- Lincoln stood out this month in ALG’s brand strength metric as well with high RHI scores amongst luxury brands which we believe is due to the continued success of the Lincoln Navigator and Nautilus SUV models.
- Used vehicle sales for June are expected to reach 3,215,742 down 4.2% year-over-year and down 5.8% from
- Tesla, Subaru and Honda are each expected to gain 0.5 percentage points in retail market share in Q2 2019 compared to the same period last year. This is believed to be driven by Model 3 and Ascent performance for Tesla and Subaru, and a boost in incentive spend for Honda.
- ALG expects used vehicle sales for Q2 2019 to reach 9,944,173 units, down 2.4% year-over-year.
- Incentive spending by automakers is expected to reach
$3,629in Q2 2019, down 2.5% compared to the same period last year.
“New SUV product continues to be king in June,” said Eric Lyman, Chief Analyst for ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar. “Kia’s Telluride, along with Lincoln’s Navigator and Nautilus are resonating with consumers, helping those brands move metal and increase market share this month without raising incentives.”
“For the second quarter, new car performance continues to be strong from a historical perspective. We’re seeing a combination of exciting product and savvy incentive strategy propelling Tesla, Subaru and Honda respectively in gaining retail market share,” added Lyman.
Retail Health Index (Forecast)
RHI measures the changes in retail market share relative to changes in incentive spending and transaction price to gauge whether OEMs are "buying" retail share through increased incentives, or whether share increases are largely demand-driven. An OEM with a positive RHI score is demonstrating a healthy balance of incentive spend relative to market share, either by holding incentive spending flat and increasing share or by increasing incentives with a higher positive increase in retail share.
Total Unit Sales
|Manufacturer||June 2019||June 2018||YoY %
Incentive Spending (Per Unit)
|Manufacturer||June 2019||June 2018||YOY %
Average Transaction Price (ATP)
|Manufacturer||June 2019||June 2018||May 2019||YOY %
Q2 2019 Forecast for the 13 largest manufacturers by volume:
Total Unit Sales
|Manufacturer||Q2 2019||Q2 2018||Q1 2019||YoY %|
For additional data visit the ALG Newsroom.
*Unique TrueCar platform new car search visitors for the period
(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company’s operations.)
Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of
Photos accompanying this announcement are available at
TrueCar & ALG PR Contact: Shadee Malekafzali Shadee@truecar.com
Source: TrueCar, Inc.