TrueCar and ALG Forecast New Vehicle Retail Sales Rise for Third Consecutive Month

November 24, 2020
Average Transaction Prices Jump Nearly 5% Year-Over-Year for November 2020

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Nov. 24, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- TrueCar, Inc. and its ALG, Inc. subsidiary project total new vehicle sales will reach 1,243,630 units in November 2020, down 0.5% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 16.4 million units. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar and ALG expect U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,099,808 units, an increase of 2.9% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

Retail Sales Change Chart
November 2020 Sales Forecast Retail Sales Change Chart


Average transaction prices (ATP) are projected to be up 4.7% or $1,707 from a year ago and up 2.3% or $838 from October 2020. TrueCar projects that U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will reach more than $47 billion for November 2020, down 7.9% (based on a non-adjusted daily selling rate) from a year ago and down 6.6% from last month.

“As Thanksgiving weekend and Black Friday inch closer, we anticipate the new vehicle sales momentum from the past three months to continue with increases year-over-year for new retail sales,” said Eric Lyman, Chief Industry Analyst for ALG. “We expect many consumers who have not been financially affected by the pandemic to make their vehicle purchases this month, especially with fewer people traveling this holiday season and with inventory rebounding.”

“Last year, the average discount on Black Friday was 10.2% off the manufacturer’s suggested retail price and we expect similar deals for this year,” added Lyman.

Additional Insights: (Forecast by ALG and TrueCar)

  • Total retail sales for November 2020 are expected to be up 2.9% from a year ago and up 8.4% from October 2020 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Fleet sales for November 2020 are expected to be down 21% from a year ago and up 38% from October 2020 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Average transaction prices (ATP) are projected to be up 4.7% or $1,707 from a year ago and up 2.3% or $838 from October 2020.
  • Total SAAR is expected to decrease 4% from a year ago from 17 million units to 16.3million units.
  • Used vehicle sales for November 2020 are expected to reach 3 million, down 1% from a year ago and down 11% from October 2020.
  • The average interest rates on new vehicles are 5.7% and the average interest rates on used vehicles are 8.1%.

“New vehicle average transaction prices are making a significant jump for November, with prices increasing more than $1,700 from a year ago,” said Nick Woolard, Director of OEM Analytics at TrueCar. “While it’s somewhat surprising to see this trend during a period of economic uncertainty, this is being driven by consumers who continue to gravitate toward utilities and pickup trucks at higher price points.”

“Incentives are up are slightly for November year-over-year and shoppers can expect to find good Black Friday deals like any other year. While inventory has been rebounding, it varies by brand and model so if there is a vehicle that a consumer has their heart set on, we recommend moving quickly to make the purchase and secure the vehicle,” added Woolard.

November 2020 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers by volume. For additional data visit the ALG Newsroom and TrueCar Newsroom.

Total Unit Sales

Manufacturer Nov 2020
Forecast
Nov 2019
Actual
Oct 2020
Actual
YoY %
Change
YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
MoM %
Change
MoM % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 29,106 34,398 31,040 -15.4% -4.3% -6.2% 14.2%
Daimler 26,033 37,263 29,082 -30.1% -21.0% -10.5% 9.0%
FCA 144,538 174,324 159,147 -17.1% -6.3% -9.2% 10.6%
Ford 152,395 188,718 181,820 -19.2% -8.7% -16.2% 2.0%
GM 231,898 245,108 259,493 -5.4% 7.0% -10.6% 8.8%
Honda 111,244 133,952 126,987 -17.0% -6.1% -12.4% 6.6%
Hyundai 58,334 62,768 58,449 -7.1% 5.1% -0.2% 21.5%
Kia 49,008 50,504 56,094 -3.0% 9.7% -12.6% 6.4%
Nissan 75,306 92,947 71,679 -19.0% -8.4% 5.1% 27.9%
Subaru 51,480 56,893 61,411 -9.5% 2.3% -16.2% 2.1%
Tesla 20,571 16,450 19,600 25.1% 41.4% 5.0% 27.8%
Toyota 197,954 207,857 203,936 -4.8% 7.7% -2.9% 18.2%
Volkswagen Group 46,191 56,575 51,607 -18.4% -7.7% -10.5% 9.0%
Industry 1,243,630 1,413,514 1,361,858 -12.0% -0.5% -8.7% 11.2%

Retail Unit Sales

Manufacturer Nov 2020
Forecast
Nov 2019
Actual
Oct 2020
Actual
YoY %
Change
YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
MoM %
Change
MoM % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 28,349 31,828 30,062 -10.9% 0.7% -5.7% 14.8%
Daimler 25,489 34,546 28,268 -26.2% -16.6% -9.8% 9.8%
FCA 126,519 136,339 139,670 -7.2% 4.9% -9.4% 10.3%
Ford 120,561 141,865 142,698 -15.0% -3.9% -15.5% 2.9%
GM 187,379 188,634 225,535 -0.7% 12.3% -16.9% 1.1%
Honda 110,689 132,842 126,401 -16.7% -5.8% -12.4% 6.6%
Hyundai 52,191 52,534 53,257 -0.7% 12.3% -2.0% 19.3%
Kia 46,776 46,370 54,492 0.9% 14.0% -14.2% 4.5%
Nissan 62,094 73,383 66,404 -15.4% -4.3% -6.5% 13.8%
Subaru 49,602 54,658 60,213 -9.2% 2.6% -17.6% 0.3%
Tesla 20,559 16,450 19,588 25.0% 41.3% 5.0% 27.8%
Toyota 178,433 195,312 188,689 -8.6% 3.3% -5.4% 15.1%
Volkswagen Group 45,452 54,148 51,401 -16.1% -5.1% -11.6% 7.6%
Industry 1,099,808 1,207,742 1,235,269 -8.9% 2.9% -11.0% 8.4%

Fleet Unit Sales

Manufacturer Nov 2020
Forecast
Nov 2019
Actual
Oct 2020
Actual
YoY %
Change
YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
MoM %
Change
MoM % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 757 2,570 978 -70.5% -66.7% -22.6% -5.8%
Daimler 543 2,717 814 -80.0% -77.4% -33.2% -18.7%
FCA 18,019 37,985 19,477 -52.6% -46.4% -7.5% 12.6%
Ford 31,834 46,853 39,122 -32.1% -23.2% -18.6% -0.9%
GM 44,519 56,474 33,958 -21.2% -10.9% 31.1% 59.6%
Honda 555 1,110 586 -50.0% -43.5% -5.2% 15.4%
Hyundai 6,143 10,234 5,192 -40.0% -32.2% 18.3% 44.0%
Kia 2,232 4,134 1,602 -46.0% -39.0% 39.4% 69.7%
Nissan 13,212 19,564 5,275 -32.5% -23.7% 150.5% 204.9%
Subaru 1,877 2,235 1,198 -16.0% -5.0% 56.7% 90.7%
Tesla 12 - 12 - - -2.7% 18.5%
Toyota 19,521 12,545 15,247 55.6% 75.9% 28.0% 55.9%
Volkswagen Group 739 2,427 206 -69.5% -65.6% 259.0% 337.0%
Industry 143,823 205,772 126,589 -30.1% -21.0% 13.6% 38.3%

Fleet Penetration

Manufacturer Nov 2020
Forecast
Nov 2019
Actual
Oct 2020
Actual
YoY %
Change
MoM %
Change
BMW 2.6% 7.5% 3.2% -65.2% -17.5%
Daimler 2.1% 7.3% 2.8% -71.4% -25.4%
FCA 12.5% 21.8% 12.2% -42.8% 1.9%
Ford 20.9% 24.8% 21.5% -15.9% -2.9%
GM 19.2% 23.0% 13.1% -16.7% 46.7%
Honda 0.5% 0.8% 0.5% -39.8% 8.2%
Hyundai 10.5% 16.3% 8.9% -35.4% 18.5%
Kia 4.6% 8.2% 2.9% -44.4% 59.5%
Nissan 17.5% 21.0% 7.4% -16.7% 138.4%
Subaru 3.6% 3.9% 2.0% -7.2% 86.9%
Tesla 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%   -7.3%
Toyota 9.9% 6.0% 7.5% 63.4% 31.9%
Volkswagen Group 1.6% 4.3% 0.4% -62.7% 301.0%
Industry 11.6% 14.6% 9.3% -20.6% 24.4%

Total Market Share

Manufacturer Nov 2020
Forecast
Nov 2019
Actual
Oct 2020
Actual
BMW 2.3% 2.4% 2.3%
Daimler 2.1% 2.6% 2.1%
FCA 11.6% 12.3% 11.7%
Ford 12.3% 13.4% 13.4%
GM 18.6% 17.3% 19.1%
Honda 8.9% 9.5% 9.3%
Hyundai 4.7% 4.4% 4.3%
Kia 3.9% 3.6% 4.1%
Nissan 6.1% 6.6% 5.3%
Subaru 4.1% 4.0% 4.5%
Tesla 1.7% 1.2% 1.4%
Toyota 15.9% 14.7% 15.0%
Volkswagen Group 3.7% 4.0% 3.8%

Retail Market Share

Manufacturer Nov 2020
Forecast
Nov 2019
Actual
Oct 2020
Actual
BMW 2.6% 2.6% 2.4%
Daimler 2.3% 2.9% 2.3%
FCA 11.5% 11.3% 11.3%
Ford 11.0% 11.7% 11.6%
GM 17.0% 15.6% 18.3%
Honda 10.1% 11.0% 10.2%
Hyundai 4.7% 4.3% 4.3%
Kia 4.3% 3.8% 4.4%
Nissan 5.6% 6.1% 5.4%
Subaru 4.5% 4.5% 4.9%
Tesla 1.9% 1.4% 1.6%
Toyota 16.2% 16.2% 15.3%
Volkswagen Group 4.1% 4.5% 4.2%

Average Transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer Nov 2020
Forecast
Nov 2019 
Actual
Oct 2020 
Actual
YOY MOM
BMW $58,351 $57,900 $60,190 0.8% -3.1%
Daimler $58,126 $59,162 $57,710 -1.8% 0.7%
FCA $44,108 $41,146 $42,756 7.2% 3.2%
Ford $44,237 $41,458 $43,594 6.7% 1.5%
GM $43,790 $41,335 $42,665 5.9% 2.6%
Honda $30,746 $29,423 $30,570 4.5% 0.6%
Hyundai $29,279 $26,338 $28,659 11.2% 2.2%
Kia $28,395 $26,164 $27,826 8.5% 2.0%
Nissan $29,529 $29,128 $29,066 1.4% 1.6%
Subaru $30,740 $30,084 $30,337 2.2% 1.3%
Toyota $35,463 $33,605 $34,978 5.5% 1.4%
Volkswagen Group $42,544 $40,953 $41,480 3.9% 2.6%
Industry $38,024 $36,317 $37,186 4.7% 2.3%

Incentive Spending

Manufacturer Nov 2020
Forecast
Nov 2019
Actual
Oct 2020
Actual
YOY MOM
BMW $5,114 $6,074 $5,866 -15.8% -12.8%
Daimler $5,161 $5,369 $5,675 -3.9% -9.1%
FCA $4,255 $4,941 $5,045 -13.9% -15.6%
Ford $4,737 $4,615 $4,313 2.6% 9.8%
GM $4,803 $5,108 $5,653 -6.0% -15.0%
Honda $2,397 $2,046 $2,654 17.2% -9.7%
Hyundai $2,535 $2,757 $2,479 -8.1% 2.2%
Kia $2,774 $3,541 $3,779 -21.7% -26.6%
Nissan $4,876 $3,970 $4,831 22.8% 0.9%
Subaru $1,762 $1,454 $1,747 21.2% 0.9%
Toyota $2,733 $2,519 $2,676 8.5% 2.1%
Volkswagen Group $4,312 $3,479 $4,401 23.9% -2.0%
Industry $3,819 $3,797 $4,103 0.6% -6.9%

Incentives as a Percentage of Average Transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer Nov 2020
Forecast
Nov 2019
Actual
Oct 2020
Actual
YOY MOM
BMW 8.8% 10.5% 9.7% -16.5% -10.1%
Daimler 8.9% 9.1% 9.8% -2.2% -9.7%
FCA 9.6% 12.0% 11.8% -19.7% -18.2%
Ford 10.7% 11.1% 9.9% -3.8% 8.2%
GM 11.0% 12.4% 13.2% -11.2% -17.2%
Honda 7.8% 7.0% 8.7% 12.1% -10.2%
Hyundai 8.7% 10.5% 8.7% -17.3% 0.1%
Kia 9.8% 13.5% 13.6% -27.8% -28.1%
Nissan 16.5% 13.6% 16.6% 21.2% -0.6%
Subaru 5.7% 4.8% 5.8% 18.6% -0.5%
Toyota 7.7% 7.5% 7.7% 2.8% 0.7%
Volkswagen Group 10.1% 8.5% 10.6% 19.3% -4.5%
Industry 10.0% 10.5% 11.0% -3.9% -9.0%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG's analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.’s operations.)

About ALG

Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 55 years and in Canada since 1981.

About TrueCar

TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables car buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient car buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings and market context on new and used cars -- all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency and fairness are the foundation of a great car buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers car-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam’s Club, and American Express. Nearly half of all new-car buyers engage with TrueCar powered sites, where they buy smarter and drive happier. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with offices in Austin, Texas and Boston, Massachusetts.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) | Email: pr@truecar.com 

A photo accompanying this announcement is available at https://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/7a61fef7-cc33-44be-883f-a3c32578fbcc


TrueCar and ALG PR Contact:
Shadee Malekafzali shadee@truecar.com
424.258.8694

Primary-TrueCar_Gradient_Black_Transparent.png

Source: TrueCar, Inc.