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TrueCar Forecasts New and Used Retail Sales Up Slightly Year-Over-Year for January 2021, While Fleet Recovery Drags
Average Transaction Price Decreases Month-Over-Month for the First Time Since May 2020

 

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Jan. 26, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. projects total new vehicle sales will reach 1,048,975 units in January 2021, down 4.4% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 15.9 million units. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 880,552 units, an increase of 0.4% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days. Used vehicle sales for January 2021 are expected to reach 3.2 million, up 1% from a year ago and up 10% from December 2020. 

 

"Entering 2021 with retail sales in line with last year is a big win for the automotive industry," said Nick Woolard, Lead Industry Analyst at TrueCar. "However, while retail sales have rebounded, rental fleets remained depressed and continue to interrupt fleet sales. . As a result, fleet sales are struggling to come back to pre-pandemic levels and are driving total unit sales down."

"The automotive industry continues to reap the benefits of continued strength in retail demand with lower incentive spend. A handful of brands such as Ford, Genesis, GMC, Ram and Toyota, appear to be in the coveted quadrant of both retail growth as well as incentive decline. This is mostly driven by new product and being in the right segments or a combination of the two," added Woolard.

Average transaction prices (ATP) are projected to be up 4.2% or $1,509 from a year ago and down 4.5% or $1,759 from December 2020. TrueCar projects that U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will reach approximately $39 billion for January 2021, down 4.4% (based on a non-adjusted daily selling rate) from a year ago and down 38.2% from last month.

"Average transaction prices have finally come down from the record-setting highs we saw last month, but are still higher than this time last year.  Of the bigger manufacturers, only Kia has an average transaction price below $30,000. We expect this trend to continue as consumers desire pricier trucks and SUVs," said Alain Nana-Sinkam, Vice President of Industry Insights at TrueCar. "As new vehicle prices rise, we may see more price-conscious shoppers gravitate back towards smaller segments or the used car market due to growing concerns around affordability."

Additional Insights (forecast by TrueCar):

  • Total retail sales for January 2021 are expected to be up 0.4% from a year ago and down 28.6% from December 2020 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Fleet sales for January 2021 are expected to be down 23.7% from a year ago and up 8% from December 2020 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Average transaction price is projected to be up 4.2% or $1,509 from a year ago and down 4.5% or $1,759 from December 2020.
  • Total SAAR is expected to decrease 5.5% from a year ago from 16.8 million units to 15.9 million units.
  • Used vehicle sales for January 2021 are expected to reach 3.2 million, up 1% from a year ago and up 10% from December 2020.
  • The average interest rate on new vehicles is 5.6% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 8.1%.

January 2021 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers by volume. For additional data, visit the TrueCar Newsroom.

Total Unit Sales

Manufacturer

Jan 2021 Forecast

Jan 2020 Actual

Dec 2020 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change

 

(Daily Selling Rate)

 

MoM % Change

MoM % Change      (Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

18,358

21,156

45,594

-13.2%

-9.6%

-59.7%

-53.0%

Daimler

15,405

24,111

35,436

-36.1%

-33.4%

-56.5%

-49.3%

Ford

143,106

156,041

208,007

-8.3%

-4.5%

-31.2%

-19.7%

GM

199,403

208,032

295,536

-4.1%

-0.2%

-32.5%

-21.3%

Honda

85,958

101,625

136,467

-15.4%

-11.9%

-37.0%

-26.5%

Hyundai

40,423

44,143

69,388

-8.4%

-4.6%

-41.7%

-32.0%

Kia

36,151

40,355

53,764

-10.4%

-6.7%

-32.8%

-21.6%

Nissan

67,641

80,698

98,638

-16.2%

-12.7%

-31.4%

-20.0%

Stellantis

124,961

135,239

202,371

-7.6%

-3.7%

-38.3%

-28.0%

Subaru

40,624

46,285

63,558

-12.2%

-8.6%

-36.1%

-25.4%

Tesla

26,156

22,350

26,950

17.0%

21.9%

-2.9%

13.2%

Toyota

169,836

166,973

251,256

1.7%

6.0%

-32.4%

-21.1%

Volkswagen Group

39,705

45,377

70,175

-12.5%

-8.9%

-43.4%

-34.0%

Industry

1,048,975

1,143,027

1,619,907

-8.2%

-4.4%

-35.2%

-24.5%

 

Retail Unit Sales

Manufacturer

Jan 2021 Forecast

Jan 2020 Actual

Dec 2020 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change

 

(Daily Selling Rate)

 

MoM % Change

MoM % Change      (Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

17,885

19,578

44,801

-8.6%

-4.8%

-60.1%

-53.4%

Daimler

15,086

22,516

34,711

-33.0%

-30.2%

-56.5%

-49.3%

Ford

111,163

106,861

169,545

4.0%

8.4%

-34.4%

-23.5%

GM

150,681

147,866

256,921

1.9%

6.1%

-41.4%

-31.6%

Honda

85,485

100,679

135,896

-15.1%

-11.6%

-37.1%

-26.6%

Hyundai

35,967

36,720

60,849

-2.0%

2.0%

-40.9%

-31.0%

Kia

32,392

33,393

51,764

-3.0%

1.0%

-37.4%

-27.0%

Nissan

52,674

57,436

81,068

-8.3%

-4.5%

-35.0%

-24.2%

Stellantis

98,062

100,485

167,109

-2.4%

1.7%

-41.3%

-31.5%

Subaru

38,383

43,618

61,188

-12.0%

-8.3%

-37.3%

-26.8%

Tesla

26,144

22,350

26,941

17.0%

21.8%

-3.0%

13.2%

Toyota

143,997

140,984

222,710

2.1%

6.4%

-35.3%

-24.6%

Volkswagen Group

38,243

40,303

69,128

-5.1%

-1.2%

-44.7%

-35.5%

Industry

880,552

913,238

1,437,992

-3.6%

0.4%

-38.8%

-28.6%

 

Fleet Unit Sales

Manufacturer

Jan 2021 Forecast

Jan 2020 Actual

Dec 2020 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change

 

(Daily Selling Rate)

 

MoM % Change

MoM % Change      (Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

472

1,578

793

-70.1%

-68.8%

-40.5%

-30.5%

Daimler

319

1,595

725

-80.0%

-79.2%

-56.0%

-48.7%

Ford

31,943

49,180

38,462

-35.0%

-32.3%

-17.0%

-3.1%

GM

48,722

60,166

38,615

-19.0%

-15.6%

26.2%

47.2%

Honda

473

946

571

-50.0%

-47.9%

-17.2%

-3.3%

Hyundai

4,456

7,423

8,539

-40.0%

-37.5%

-47.8%

-39.1%

Kia

3,759

6,962

2,000

-46.0%

-43.8%

87.9%

119.3%

Nissan

14,966

23,262

17,570

-35.7%

-33.0%

-14.8%

-0.6%

Stellantis

26,900

34,754

35,262

-22.6%

-19.4%

-23.7%

-11.0%

Subaru

2,241

2,667

2,370

-16.0%

-12.5%

-5.4%

10.3%

Tesla

12

-

9

-

-

30.6%

52.4%

Toyota

25,839

25,989

28,546

-0.6%

3.6%

-9.5%

5.6%

Volkswagen Group

1,462

5,074

1,047

-71.2%

-70.0%

39.7%

63.0%

Industry

168,423

229,789

181,915

-26.7%

-23.7%

-7.4%

8.0%

 

Fleet Penetration

Manufacturer

Jan 2021 Forecast

Jan 2020 Actual

Dec 2020 Actual

YoY % Change

MoM % Change

BMW

2.6%

7.5%

1.7%

-65.5%

47.9%

Daimler

2.1%

6.6%

2.0%

-68.7%

1.2%

Ford

22.3%

31.5%

18.5%

-29.2%

20.7%

GM

24.4%

28.9%

13.1%

-15.5%

87.0%

Honda

0.6%

0.9%

0.4%

-40.9%

31.5%

Hyundai

11.0%

16.8%

12.3%

-34.4%

-10.4%

Kia

10.4%

17.3%

3.7%

-39.7%

179.5%

Nissan

22.1%

28.8%

17.8%

-23.2%

24.2%

Stellantis

21.5%

25.7%

17.4%

-16.2%

23.5%

Subaru

5.5%

5.8%

3.7%

-4.3%

47.9%

Tesla

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

 

34.6%

Toyota

15.2%

15.6%

11.4%

-2.3%

33.9%

Volkswagen Group

3.7%

11.2%

1.5%

-67.1%

146.9%

Industry

16.1%

20.1%

11.2%

-20.1%

43.0%

 

Total Market Share

Manufacturer

Jan 2021 Forecast

Jan 2020 Actual

Dec 2020 Actual

BMW

1.8%

1.9%

2.8%

Daimler

1.5%

2.1%

2.2%

Ford

13.6%

13.7%

12.8%

GM

19.0%

18.2%

18.2%

Honda

8.2%

8.9%

8.4%

Hyundai

3.9%

3.9%

4.3%

Kia

3.4%

3.5%

3.3%

Nissan

6.4%

7.1%

6.1%

Stellantis

11.9%

11.8%

12.5%

Subaru

3.9%

4.0%

3.9%

Tesla

2.5%

2.0%

1.7%

Toyota

16.2%

14.6%

15.5%

Volkswagen Group

3.8%

4.0%

4.3%

 

Retail Market Share

Manufacturer

Jan 2021 Forecast

Jan 2020 Actual

Dec 2020 Actual

BMW

2.0%

2.1%

3.1%

Daimler

1.7%

2.5%

2.4%

Ford

12.6%

11.7%

11.8%

GM

17.1%

16.2%

17.9%

Honda

9.7%

11.0%

9.5%

Hyundai

4.1%

4.0%

4.2%

Kia

3.7%

3.7%

3.6%

Nissan

6.0%

6.3%

5.6%

Stellantis

11.1%

11.0%

11.6%

Subaru

4.4%

4.8%

4.3%

Tesla

3.0%

2.4%

1.9%

Toyota

16.4%

15.4%

15.5%

Volkswagen Group

4.3%

4.4%

4.8%

 

Average Transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer

Jan 2021 Forecast

Jan 2020 Actual

Dec 2020 Actual

YOY

MOM

BMW

$58,473

$57,090

$59,710

2.4%

-2.1%

Daimler

$61,867

$60,853

$61,087

1.7%

1.3%

Ford

$43,580

$42,543

$44,354

2.4%

-1.7%

GM

$41,852

$39,522

$43,735

5.9%

-4.3%

Honda

$30,740

$29,220

$30,959

5.2%

-0.7%

Hyundai

$31,273

$28,324

$30,477

10.4%

2.6%

Kia

$28,204

$25,647

$28,137

10.0%

0.2%

Nissan

$30,068

$29,351

$29,965

2.4%

0.3%

Stellantis

$42,886

$40,590

$43,259

5.7%

-0.9%

Subaru

$30,564

$30,032

$30,789

1.8%

-0.7%

Toyota

$34,995

$33,379

$35,321

4.8%

-0.9%

Volkswagen Group

$43,040

$40,787

$42,920

5.5%

0.3%

Industry

$37,330

$35,821

$39,089

4.2%

-4.5%

 

Incentive Spending

Manufacturer

Jan 2021 Forecast

Jan 2020 Actual

Dec 2020 Actual

YOY

MOM

BMW

$4,687

$5,812

$5,233

-19.4%

-10.4%

Daimler

$4,187

$6,246

$4,438

-33.0%

-5.7%

Ford

$3,925

$4,926

$4,464

-20.3%

-12.1%

GM

$5,537

$5,673

$4,971

-2.4%

11.4%

Honda

$2,862

$2,520

$2,455

13.6%

16.6%

Hyundai

$2,281

$3,092

$2,536

-26.2%

-10.0%

Kia

$2,605

$3,686

$2,999

-29.3%

-13.1%

Nissan

$4,062

$4,842

$4,586

-16.1%

-11.4%

Stellantis

$5,284

$5,027

$4,681

5.1%

12.9%

Subaru

$1,512

$1,244

$1,505

21.5%

0.5%

Toyota

$2,466

$2,679

$2,755

-8.0%

-10.5%

Volkswagen Group

$3,754

$4,407

$4,256

-14.8%

-11.8%

Industry

$3,839

$4,151

$3,869

-7.5%

-0.8%

             
 

Incentives as a Percentage of Average Transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer

Jan 2021 Forecast

Jan 2020 Actual

Dec 2020 Actual

YOY

MOM

BMW

8.0%

10.2%

8.8%

-21.3%

-8.5%

Daimler

6.8%

10.3%

7.3%

-34.1%

-6.8%

Ford

9.0%

11.6%

10.1%

-22.2%

-10.5%

GM

13.2%

14.4%

11.4%

-7.8%

16.4%

Honda

9.3%

8.6%

7.9%

8.0%

17.4%

Hyundai

7.3%

10.9%

8.3%

-33.2%

-12.3%

Kia

9.2%

14.4%

10.7%

-35.7%

-13.3%

Nissan

13.5%

16.5%

15.3%

-18.1%

-11.7%

Stellantis

12.3%

12.4%

10.8%

-0.5%

13.9%

Subaru

4.9%

4.1%

4.9%

19.4%

1.2%

Toyota

7.0%

8.0%

7.8%

-12.2%

-9.7%

Volkswagen Group

8.7%

10.8%

9.9%

-19.3%

-12.0%

Industry

10.3%

11.6%

9.9%

-11.2%

3.9%

             
 

(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)

About TrueCar
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables car buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient car buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings, and market context on new and used cars – all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency, and fairness are the foundation of a great car buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers car-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, and American Express. Nearly half of all new-car buyers engage with TrueCar powered sites, where they buy smarter and drive happier. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with offices in Austin, Texas, and Boston, Massachusetts.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) | Email: pr@truecar.com 

TrueCar PR Contacts:
Shadee Malekafzali
shadee@truecar.com
424.258.8694

Tanya Kohan
tkohan@truecar.com
714.425.6319

SOURCE Truecar, Inc.

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