TrueCar’s ALG Forecasts New Car Auto Sales Down Slightly Yet Industry Stable Reaching Over 17M SAAR for Second Consecutive Month in 2019
SANTA MONICA, Calif.,
“In line with the trend this year, the auto industry continues to show some struggles in retail sales,” said Oliver Strauss, Chief Economist of TrueCar’s ALG. “Nevertheless, reaching 17M SAAR for the second consecutive month is an indicator of health and stability and consumers continue to remain confident in a robust economic environment.”
Average incentive spending by automakers should reach an estimated
While most automakers continued the downward trend in incentive spending, Honda and Subaru bucked the trend and raised incentive spend this month.
“Honda’s flagship CR-V is likely increasing incentives in order to gain a pricing advantage over a newly re-designed RAV4,” said Cari Crane, Director of Industry Insights at TrueCar’s ALG. “This would indicate that the battle for the compact-SUV segment leader is already heating up.”
ALG’s Retail Health Index (RHI) assessed whether OEMs are gaining market share through consumer demand or through incentives. Luxury utility leaders Mercedes, BMW and Audi are all expected to be down in this month’s RHI.
“Tier one luxury brands may be raising incentives in order to hold market share and offset increases in ATP. Tariff uncertainty could also be playing into this decision, with automakers attempting to get ahead of tariff decisions that could drive down consumer demand,” added Crane.
Retail Health Index (Forecast)
RHI measures the changes in retail market share relative to changes in incentive spending and transaction price to gauge whether OEMs are "buying" retail share through increased incentives, or whether share increases are largely demand-driven. An OEM with a positive RHI score is demonstrating a healthy balance of incentive spend relative to market share, either by holding incentive spending flat and increasing share or by increasing incentives with a higher positive increase in retail share.
Forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers by volume:
Total Unit Sales (adjusted for same number of selling days as 2018). Tesla forecast include since
|Manufacturer||Incentive per Unit April
|Incentive per Unit
Average Transaction Price (ATP)
For additional data visit the ALG Newsroom.
(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company’s operations.)
Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of
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Source: TrueCar, Inc.