TrueCar’s ALG Forecasts New Car Auto Sales for March 2020 and the First Quarter

March 27, 2020

SANTA MONICA, Calif., March 27, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar, and the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects total new vehicle sales will reach 941,735 units in March 2020, down 37% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 10.7 million units. Excluding fleet sales, ALG expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 656,343 units, a decrease of 38% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

“March is traditionally a strong retail month and was off to a good start. As we inched closer to the middle of the month and the Coronavirus was declared a global pandemic, that triggered unprecedented protective measures from local and federal governments, and we began to see a stark drop in auto sales,” said Eric Lyman, Chief Industry Analyst at ALG.

“Economic uncertainty, coupled with health and safety concerns, have made consumers hesitant to visit dealer showrooms and make large purchases,” added Lyman. “However, the industry is rapidly pivoting to remote retailing practices and automakers and lenders have launched deferment programs and steep incentives to help ease consumer apprehensions. These offerings should help buoy demand a bit in the short-term.”

Additional Insights: (Forecast by ALG)

  • Total retail sales for March 2020 are expected to be down 37% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Fleet sales for March 2020 are expected to be down 12% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Total SAAR is expected to decrease 38% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days from 17.4 million units to 10.7 million units.
  • Used vehicle sales for March 2020 are expected to reach 2,707,235, down 29% from a year ago and down 24% from February 2020.
  • The average interest rates on new vehicle loans is 6.53%, based on TrueCar data.

“While new and used vehicle sales are both down year-over-year, used sales declines aren’t as steep, signaling a shift in demand to vehicles at lower price points,” said Nick Woolard, Director of OEM and Affinity Partner Analytics at TrueCar. “As incentives surface to assist with new vehicle affordability and the price delta between new vehicles and recent model year used vehicles shrinks, we can expect to see the demand even out between new and used.”

ALG’s Revised COVID-19 2020 New Vehicle Sales Forecast:

March 2020 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers by volume: (Adjusted for same selling days as March 2019.)  For additional data visit the ALG Newsroom.

Total Unit Sales

Manufacturer Mar 2020 Forecast Mar 2019 Actual Feb 2020 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
MoM % Change MoM % Change  (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW   20,901   36,148   27,476 -42.2% -37.6% -23.9% -20.9%
Daimler   17,839   30,627   26,088 -41.8% -37.1% -31.6% -28.9%
FCA   117,473   200,307   183,926 -41.4% -36.7% -36.1% -33.6%
Ford   138,914   230,382   189,561 -39.7% -34.9% -26.7% -23.8%
GM   159,282   271,205   238,448 -41.3% -36.6% -33.2% -30.5%
Honda   82,848   148,509   120,006 -44.2% -39.8% -31.0% -28.2%
Hyundai   36,985   62,627   54,600 -40.9% -36.2% -32.3% -29.6%
Kia   34,169   55,814   52,177 -38.8% -33.9% -34.5% -31.9%
Nissan   83,576   150,768   99,253 -44.6% -40.1% -15.8% -12.4%
Subaru   34,553   61,601   51,695 -43.9% -39.4% -33.2% -30.5%
Tesla   9,939   13,000   20,450 -23.5% -17.4% -51.4% -49.5%
Toyota   126,153   214,947   195,407 -41.3% -36.6% -35.4% -32.9%
Volkswagen Group   36,680   62,577   50,390 -41.4% -36.7% -27.2% -24.3%
Industry   941,735   1,608,662   1,373,324 -41.5% -36.8% -31.4% -28.7%

Retail Unit Sales

Manufacturer Mar 2020 Forecast Mar 2019 Actual Feb 2020 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
MoM % Change MoM % Change  (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW   19,084   35,078   25,949 -45.6% -41.2% -26.5% -23.5%
Daimler   13,371   28,767   23,734 -53.5% -49.8% -43.7% -41.4%
FCA   62,541   151,141   128,833 -58.6% -55.3% -51.5% -49.5%
Ford   90,954   133,947   133,421 -32.1% -26.7% -31.8% -29.1%
GM   115,705   225,578   167,530 -48.7% -44.6% -30.9% -28.2%
Honda   74,446   146,800   115,944 -49.3% -45.2% -35.8% -33.2%
Hyundai   21,713   47,194   40,427 -54.0% -50.3% -46.3% -44.1%
Kia   22,917   46,868   41,844 -51.1% -47.2% -45.2% -43.0%
Nissan   46,714   101,269   68,324 -53.9% -50.2% -31.6% -28.9%
Subaru   28,833   58,448   48,423 -50.7% -46.7% -40.5% -38.1%
Tesla   9,939   13,000   20,450 -23.5% -17.4% -51.4% -49.5%
Toyota   97,554   191,463   166,441 -49.0% -45.0% -41.4% -39.0%
Volkswagen Group   29,656   56,395   44,783 -47.4% -43.2% -33.8% -31.1%
Industry   665,343   1,292,614   1,078,492 -48.5% -44.4% -38.3% -35.8%

Fleet Unit Sales

Manufacturer Mar 2020 Forecast Mar 2019 Actual Feb 2020 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
MoM % Change MoM % Change  (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW   1,816   1,070   1,527 69.8% 83.4% 18.9% 23.7%
Daimler   4,469   1,860   2,354 140.2% 159.4% 89.8% 97.4%
FCA   54,932   49,166   55,093 11.7% 20.7% -0.3% 3.7%
Ford   47,960   96,435   56,140 -50.3% -46.3% -14.6% -11.2%
GM   43,577   45,627   70,918 -4.5% 3.1% -38.6% -36.1%
Honda   8,401   1,709   4,062 391.5% 430.8% 106.8% 115.1%
Hyundai   15,271   15,433   14,173 -1.0% 6.9% 7.7% 12.1%
Kia   11,252   8,946   10,333 25.8% 35.8% 8.9% 13.2%
Nissan   36,862   49,499   30,929 -25.5% -19.6% 19.2% 23.9%
Subaru   5,719   3,153   3,272 81.4% 95.9% 74.8% 81.8%
Tesla   -    -    -         
Toyota   28,599   23,484   28,966 21.8% 31.5% -1.3% 2.7%
Volkswagen Group   7,024   6,182   5,607 13.6% 22.7% 25.3% 30.3%
Industry   276,392   316,048   294,832 -12.5% -5.6% -6.3% -2.5%

Fleet Penetration

Manufacturer Mar 2020 Forecast   Mar 2019 Actual   Feb 2020 Actual   YoY % Change   MoM % Change  
BMW 8.7 % 3.0 % 5.6 % 193.7 % 56.3 %
Daimler 25.1 % 6.1 % 9.0 % 312.4 % 177.6 %
FCA 46.8 % 24.5 % 30.0 % 90.5 % 56.1 %
Ford 34.5 % 41.9 % 29.6 % -17.5 % 16.6 %
GM 27.4 % 16.8 % 29.7 % 62.6 % -8.0 %
Honda 10.1 % 1.2 % 3.4 % 781.1 % 199.6 %
Hyundai 41.3 % 24.6 % 26.0 % 67.6 % 59.1 %
Kia 32.9 % 16.0 % 19.8 % 105.4 % 66.3 %
Nissan 44.1 % 32.8 % 31.2 % 34.3 % 41.5 %
Subaru 16.6 % 5.1 % 6.3 % 223.4 % 161.6 %
Tesla 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %    
Toyota 22.7 % 10.9 % 14.8 % 107.5 % 52.9 %
Volkswagen Group 19.1 % 9.9 % 11.1 % 93.8 % 72.1 %
Industry 29.3 % 19.6 % 21.5 % 49.4 % 36.7 %

Total Market Share

Manufacturer Mar 2020 Forecast   Mar 2019 Actual   Feb 2020 Actual  
BMW 2.2 % 2.2 % 2.0 %
Daimler 1.9 % 1.9 % 1.9 %
FCA 12.5 % 12.5 % 13.4 %
Ford 14.8 % 14.3 % 13.8 %
GM 16.9 % 16.9 % 17.4 %
Honda 8.8 % 9.2 % 8.7 %
Hyundai 3.9 % 3.9 % 4.0 %
Kia 3.6 % 3.5 % 3.8 %
Nissan 8.9 % 9.4 % 7.2 %
Subaru 3.7 % 3.8 % 3.8 %
Tesla 1.1 % 0.8 % 1.5 %
Toyota 13.4 % 13.4 % 14.2 %
Volkswagen Group 3.9 % 3.9 % 3.7 %

Retail Market Share

Manufacturer Mar 2020 Forecast   Mar 2019 Actual   Feb 2020 Actual  
BMW 2.9 % 2.7 % 2.4 %
Daimler 2.0 % 2.2 % 2.2 %
FCA 9.4 % 11.7 % 11.9 %
Ford 13.7 % 10.4 % 12.4 %
GM 17.4 % 17.5 % 15.5 %
Honda 11.2 % 11.4 % 10.8 %
Hyundai 3.3 % 3.7 % 3.7 %
Kia 3.4 % 3.6 % 3.9 %
Nissan 7.0 % 7.8 % 6.3 %
Subaru 4.3 % 4.5 % 4.5 %
Tesla 1.5 % 1.0 % 1.9 %
Toyota 14.7 % 14.8 % 15.4 %
Volkswagen Group 4.5 % 4.4 % 4.2 %

Quarterly Tables
Total Unit Sales, Quarterly

Manufacturer Q1 2020 Q1 2019 Q4 2019 YoY % Change YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
QoQ % Change QoQ % Change  (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW   69,901   82,793   100,952 -15.6% -16.7% -30.8% -28.9%
Daimler   69,114   78,878   105,885 -12.4% -13.5% -34.7% -33.0%
FCA   438,415   500,870   538,710 -12.5% -13.6% -18.6% -16.5%
Ford   499,458   586,956   604,198 -14.9% -16.0% -17.3% -15.2%
GM   632,871   665,005   735,497 -4.8% -6.1% -14.0% -11.7%
Honda   304,421   369,787   420,752 -17.7% -18.8% -27.6% -25.7%
Hyundai   135,598   151,787   190,189 -10.7% -11.8% -28.7% -26.8%
Kia   126,607   136,596   149,788 -7.3% -8.5% -15.5% -13.3%
Nissan   262,624   365,851   309,353 -28.2% -29.2% -15.1% -12.9%
Subaru   132,532   156,754   177,167 -15.5% -16.6% -25.2% -23.2%
Tesla   49,190   46,900   48,239 4.9% 3.5% 2.0% 4.7%
Toyota   487,623   543,716   613,486 -10.3% -11.5% -20.5% -18.4%
Volkswagen Group   131,974   149,618   168,233 -11.8% -13.0% -21.6% -19.5%
Industry   3,340,326   3,835,511   4,300,460 -12.9% -14.1% -22.3% -20.3%

Retail Unit Sales, Quarterly

Manufacturer Q1 2020 Q1 2019 Q4 2019 YoY % Change YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
QoQ % Change QoQ % Change  (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW   70,256   80,158   92,992 -12.4% -13.5% -24.4% -22.5%
Daimler   60,202   73,937   102,312 -18.6% -19.6% -41.2% -39.6%
FCA   274,885   377,632   406,214 -27.2% -28.2% -32.3% -30.5%
Ford   326,248   366,169   443,331 -10.9% -12.1% -26.4% -24.5%
GM   414,409   508,509   532,562 -18.5% -19.6% -22.2% -20.1%
Honda   297,439   366,537   416,814 -18.9% -19.9% -28.6% -26.8%
Hyundai   100,834   108,615   163,358 -7.2% -8.4% -38.3% -36.6%
Kia   101,592   108,963   131,832 -6.8% -8.0% -22.9% -20.9%
Nissan   177,832   247,219   270,912 -28.1% -29.0% -34.4% -32.6%
Subaru   122,901   147,682   171,157 -16.8% -17.9% -28.2% -26.3%
Tesla   49,190   46,900   48,239 4.9% 3.5% 2.0% 4.7%
Toyota   398,355   465,616   580,907 -14.4% -15.6% -31.4% -29.6%
Volkswagen Group   113,579   134,786   160,055 -15.7% -16.8% -29.0% -27.2%
Industry   2,507,723   3,032,723   3,678,198 -17.3% -18.4 -31.8% -30.0%

Total Market Share, Quarterly

Manufacturer Q1 2020   Q1 2019   Q4 2019  
BMW 2.1 % 2.2 % 2.3 %
Daimler 2.1 % 2.1 % 2.5 %
FCA 13.1 % 13.1 % 12.5 %
Ford 15.0 % 15.3 % 14.0 %
GM 18.9 % 17.3 % 17.1 %
Honda 9.1 % 9.6 % 9.8 %
Hyundai 4.1 % 4.0 % 4.4 %
Kia 3.8 % 3.6 % 3.5 %
Nissan 7.9 % 9.5 % 7.2 %
Subaru 4.0 % 4.1 % 4.1 %
Tesla 1.5 % 1.2 % 1.1 %
Toyota 14.6 % 14.2 % 14.3 %
Volkswagen Group 4.0 % 3.9 % 3.9 %

Retail Market Share, Quarterly

Manufacturer Q1 2020   Q1 2019   Q4 2019  
BMW 2.8 % 2.6 % 2.5 %
Daimler 2.4 % 2.4 % 2.8 %
FCA 11.0 % 12.5 % 11.0 %
Ford 13.0 % 12.1 % 12.1 %
GM 16.5 % 16.8 % 14.5 %
Honda 11.9 % 12.1 % 11.3 %
Hyundai 4.0 % 3.6 % 4.4 %
Kia 4.1 % 3.6 % 3.6 %
Nissan 7.1 % 8.2 % 7.4 %
Subaru 4.9 % 4.9 % 4.7 %
Tesla 2.0 % 1.5 % 1.3 %
Toyota 15.9 % 15.4 % 15.8 %
Volkswagen Group 4.5 % 4.4 % 4.4 %

(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG's analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.’s operations.)

About ALG

Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 55 years and in Canada since 1981.

About TrueCar

TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables car buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient car buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings and market context on new and used cars -- all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency and fairness are the foundation of a great car buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers car-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam’s Club, and American Express. Nearly half of all new-car buyers engage with TrueCar powered sites, where they buy smarter and drive happier. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with offices in Austin, Texas and Boston, Massachusetts.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) | Email: pr@truecar.com 

TrueCar and ALG PR Contact:
Shadee Malekafzali
shadee@truecar.com
424.258.8694

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Source: TrueCar, Inc.