TrueCar’s ALG Forecasts New Car Auto Sales Up Slightly for February 2020 with Used Auto Sales up 6%

February 26, 2020

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Feb. 26, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- TrueCar, the most efficient online platform to find a car, (NASDAQ: TRUE) and its data and analytics subsidiary, ALG, project total new vehicle sales will reach 1,373,516 units in February 2020, up 0.2% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 17.1 million units. Excluding fleet sales, ALG expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,081,996 units, an increase of 1.2% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

“Although consumer confidence is stable and economic fundamentals remain strong, consumers are still receiving a lot of mixed messages about the economy,” said Eric Lyman, Chief Industry Analyst at ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar. “The fact that we’re in an election year, the Coronavirus is starting to have a global impact and that we’re beyond the normal cycle for a recession all combine to create a sense of uncertainty.”

February 2020 is a leap year and we’re highlighting a few brands that have leaped forward in the past four years:

  • Mainstream brands Kia and Hyundai have come a long way with elevated lineups. Both brands were previously associated with value-driven cars and now have progressed in the mainstream space with their upscale SUVs, the Hyundai Palisade and Kia Telluride. Both vehicles are successful SUVs on the TrueCar platform with the Kia Telluride winning ALG’s 2020 Design Innovation Award.
  • Subaru has made great strides in the past four years with a measured approach to production that limited over-production. They have also benefited from consumer demand moving towards the styling and functionality that their products historically provide. On the TrueCar platform, Subaru’s inventory is up 34% and the Crosstrek is the #1 selling subcompact SUV since January. 
  • In the luxury segment, Volvo has proven itself as a prominent player over the past four years. With a cohesive lineup of premium, design forward vehicles, Volvo is back at the top of the consideration list for luxury brand consumers. 

Additional Insights: (Forecast by ALG)

  • Among mainstream brands, Kia and Hyundai are continuing their momentum with increased sales this month. Kia is up 14.3% and Hyundai is up 11.6% respectively year-over-year for total sales.
  • Subaru is up 3.3% year-over-year for total sales, likely due to the increased inventory to match elevated consumer demand, especially for their popular Outback and Forester SUVs.
  • BMW’s continues its 12-month positive sales streak and is expected to be up 9.3% year-over-year in total sales and up 6.5% on retail sales with incentives down by 2.2%.
  • Ford, Nissan and GM are forecasted to be down 6.7%, 14.4% and 1.8%, respectively, in total unit sales compared to a year ago. All three manufacturers are down on fleet unit sales year-over-year.
  • Used vehicle sales for February 2020 are expected to reach 3,699,048, up 6% from a year ago and up 12% from January 2020.
  • The average interest rates on new vehicle loans is 6.21%, based on TrueCar data.

“Low interest rates on vehicle auto loans and mild winter weather thus far are contributing to a healthy sales month,” said Nick Woolard, Director of OEM and Affinity Partner Analytics at TrueCar. “We continue to see growth driven by new products, especially in the utility and crossover segments.”

February 2020 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers by volume:
(Adjusted for same selling days as February 2019.)  For additional data visit the ALG Newsroom.

Total Unit Sales

Manufacturer Feb 2020 Forecast Feb 2019 Actual Jan 2020 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
MoM % Change MoM % Change 
(Daily Selling Rate)
BMW   31,214   26,367   21,607 18.4% 9.3% 44.5% 38.9%
Daimler   27,825   24,447   25,187 13.8% 5.1% 10.5% 6.2%
FCA   174,564   162,036   135,662 7.7% -0.6% 28.7% 23.7%
Ford   186,854   184,811   170,983 1.1% -6.7% 9.3% 5.1%
GM   222,475   209,020   235,141 6.4% -1.8% -5.4% -9.0%
Honda   127,751   115,139   101,567 11.0% 2.4% 25.8% 20.9%
Hyundai   56,982   47,140   44,013 20.9% 11.6% 29.5% 24.5%
Kia   53,752   43,406   40,261 23.8% 14.3% 33.5% 28.4%
Nissan   105,993   114,342   79,795 -7.3% -14.4% 32.8% 27.7%
Subaru   54,951   49,081   46,284 12.0% 3.3% 18.7% 14.2%
Tesla   18,197   15,400   22,350 18.2% 9.1% -18.6% -21.7%
Toyota   198,485   172,748   166,063 14.9% 6.1% 19.5% 14.9%
Volkswagen Group   50,498   44,445   45,059 13.6% 4.9% 12.1% 7.8%
Industry   1,373,516   1,265,094   1,184,381 8.6% 0.2% 16.0% 11.5%

Retail Unit Sales

Manufacturer Feb 2020 Forecast Feb 2019 Actual Jan 2020 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
MoM % Change MoM % Change 
(Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 29,488   25,548   20,254 15.4% 6.5% 45.6% 40.0%
Daimler 25,313   23,274   22,903 8.8% 0.4% 10.5% 6.3%
FCA 114,923   120,169   105,414 -4.4% -11.7% 9.0% 4.8%
Ford 131,509   124,095   114,875 6.0% -2.2% 14.5% 10.1%
GM 162,649   142,169   175,402 14.4% 5.6% -7.3% -10.8%
Honda 123,424   114,262   99,014 8.0% -0.3% 24.7% 19.9%
Hyundai 42,021   35,266   31,898 19.2% 10.0% 31.7% 26.7%
Kia 43,107   32,996   33,731 30.6% 20.6% 27.8% 22.9%
Nissan 72,723   75,655   58,960 -3.9% -11.3% 23.3% 18.6%
Subaru 51,474   46,335   43,767 11.1% 2.5% 17.6% 13.1%
Tesla 18,197   15,400   22,350 18.2% 9.1% -18.6% -21.7%
Toyota 169,471   146,823   144,455 15.4% 6.5% 17.3% 12.8%
Volkswagen Group 44,859   40,237   40,505 11.5% 2.9% 10.8% 6.5%
Industry  1,081,996   987,380   957,329 9.6% 1.2% 13.0% 8.7%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG's analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar Inc.’s operations.)

About TrueCar

TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables car buyers to connect to our network of 16,500 Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient car buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings and market context on new and used cars -- all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency and fairness are the foundation of a great car buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers car-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including USAA, Sam’s Club, and American Express. Nearly half of all new-car buyers engage with TrueCar powered sites, where they buy smarter and drive happier. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with offices in Austin, Texas and Boston, Massachusetts.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) | Email: pr@truecar.com 

About ALG

Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 55 years and in Canada since 1981. 

TrueCar and ALG PR Contact:
Shadee Malekafzalishadee@truecar.com
424.258.8694

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Source: TrueCar, Inc.