TrueCar’s ALG Forecasts New Vehicle Sales Continue to Bounce Back with Used Vehicle Sales Up Year-Over-Year for August 2020

August 25, 2020

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Aug. 25, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- ALG, Inc., a subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc. and the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects total new vehicle sales will reach 1,303,826 units in August 2020, down 15% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 15 million units. Excluding fleet sales, ALG expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,187,140 units, a decrease of 11% from a year ago ­­when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

Retail Sales Change (DRS): % Difference Year-Over-Year
Retail Sales Change (DRS): % Difference Year-Over-Year from January - August


An infographic accompanying this announcement is available at https://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/81b8bf98-f571-4fa4-884c-aa15e5f62b97

“The automotive industry momentum continues in August as the industry claws back more and more new vehicle sales each month since sales bottomed out in April,” said Eric Lyman, Chief Industry Analyst for ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar.  “When you take into consideration that part of Labor Day weekend fell in August last year and this year it’s fully falling in September, it’s an even better story, with sales only dipping slightly year-over-year.  When it comes to retail sales, we are consistently seeing that the automakers with the strongest SUV, crossover and truck lineups coupled with healthy inventory levels are continuing to outpace the brands that do not.”

“Used vehicle sales are actually up year-over-year, as consumers turn toward the used car market for cost savings during these uncertain economic times, and also due to some supply shortages on the new vehicle side,” added Lyman. “While this heightened demand is creating upward pressure on used retail prices, it is making it a great time for consumers to get top value on a trade-in on popular used vehicles.”

Additional Insights: (Forecast by ALG)

  • Total retail sales for August 2020 are expected to be down 11% from a year ago and up 6% from July 2020 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Fleet sales for August 2020 are expected to be down 41% from a year and up 8% from July 2020 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Total SAAR is expected to decrease 11% from a year ago from 16.8 million units to 15 million units.
  • Used vehicle sales for August 2020 are expected to reach 3.6 million, up 4% from a year ago and up 2% from July 2020.

“While retail sales for most automakers are up month-over-month, Kia is setting itself apart from the pack, as one of the only automakers that is up year-over-year,” said Nick Woolard, Director of OEM Analytics at TrueCar. “Most of Kia’s portfolio is back to selling at pre-Covid-19 levels. Despite the Telluride, one of their most popular models, being in short-supply, Kia’s strong lineup with some of their newer SUV products such as the recently launched Seltos, is contributing to their strong gains.”

“Volkswagen is also showing strong recovery, thanks to its strong incentive offerings for consumers. While many automakers are scaling back on zero percentage offers for 84 months, Volkswagen is presenting one of the stronger programs to consumers with zero percentage financing for up-to 72 months on most VW models,” added Woolard. “Volkswagen’s strong crossover lineup with the Atlas Cross Sport and 3-Row Tiguan are successfully contributing to the industry’s appetite for utility vehicles.”

August 2020 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers by volume. For additional data visit the ALG Newsroom.

Total Unit Sales

Manufacturer Aug 2020 Forecast Aug 2019 Actual Jul 2020 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
MoM % Change MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 21,578 29,477 22,711 -26.8 % -21.2 % -5.0 % -5.0 %
Daimler 21,927 30,218 26,850 -27.4 % -21.9 % -18.3 % -18.3 %
FCA 169,959 215,240 157,025 -21.0 % -15.0 % 8.2 % 8.2 %
Ford 181,845 209,953 174,978 -13.4 % -6.7 % 3.9 % 3.9 %
GM 228,906 289,475 204,756 -20.9 % -14.8 % 11.8 % 11.8 %
Honda 132,290 173,993 125,450 -24.0 % -18.1 % 5.5 % 5.5 %
Hyundai 59,614 65,494 58,934 -9.0 % -2.0 % 1.2 % 1.2 %
Kia 56,421 60,730 52,479 -7.1 % 0.1 % 7.5 % 7.5 %
Nissan 78,623 127,230 73,463 -38.2 % -33.5 % 7.0 % 7.0 %
Subaru 48,508 70,039 51,458 -30.7 % -25.4 % -5.7 % -5.7 %
Tesla 16,035 13,200 15,800 21.5 % 30.8 % 1.5 % 1.5 %
Toyota 188,251 248,334 168,791 -24.2 % -18.4 % 11.5 % 11.5 %
Volkswagen Group 51,551 61,965 47,724 -16.8 % -10.4 % 8.0 % 8.0 %
Industry 1,303,826 1,649,669 1,227,420 -21.0 % -14.9 % 6.2 % 6.2 %

Retail Unit Sales

Manufacturer Aug 2020 Forecast Aug 2019 Actual Jul 2020 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
MoM % Change MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 20,575 27,091 22,156 -24.1 % -18.2 % -7.1 % -7.1 %
Daimler 21,473 28,693 26,006 -25.2 % -19.4 % -17.4 % -17.4 %
FCA 149,016 168,665 138,095 -11.6 % -4.9 % 7.9 % 7.9 %
Ford 141,102 168,704 135,056 -16.4 % -9.9 % 4.5 % 4.5 %
GM 194,754 229,693 175,013 -15.2 % -8.7 % 11.3 % 11.3 %
Honda 131,652 172,717 124,883 -23.8 % -17.9 % 5.4 % 5.4 %
Hyundai 55,478 60,120 54,881 -7.7 % -0.6 % 1.1 % 1.1 %
Kia 54,901 53,825 51,508 2.0 % 9.8 % 6.6 % 6.6 %
Nissan 73,019 91,244 67,023 -20.0 % -13.8 % 8.9 % 8.9 %
Subaru 47,496 68,834 50,184 -31.0 % -25.7 % -5.4 % -5.4 %
Tesla 16,023 13,200 15,788 21.4 % 30.7 % 1.5 % 1.5 %
Toyota 182,566 240,706 166,235 -24.2 % -18.3 % 9.8 % 9.8 %
Volkswagen Group 51,073 60,399 46,312 -15.4 % -8.9 % 10.3 % 10.3 %
Industry 1,187,140 1,437,022 1,119,378 -17.4 % -11.0 % 6.1 % 6.1 %

Fleet Unit Sales

Manufacturer Aug 2020 Forecast Aug 2019 Actual Jul 2020 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
MoM % Change MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 1,003 2,386 555 -58.0 % -54.7 % 80.8 % 80.8 %
Daimler 454 1,525 844 -70.2 % -67.9 % -46.2 % -46.2 %
FCA 20,943 46,575 18,930 -55.0 % -51.6 % 10.6 % 10.6 %
Ford 40,743 41,249 39,922 -1.2 % 6.4 % 2.1 % 2.1 %
GM 34,152 59,782 29,743 -42.9 % -38.5 % 14.8 % 14.8 %
Honda 638 1,276 567 -50.0 % -46.2 % 12.5 % 12.5 %
Hyundai 4,137 5,374 4,053 -23.0 % -17.1 % 2.1 % 2.1 %
Kia 1,519 6,905 971 -78.0 % -76.3 % 56.4 % 56.4 %
Nissan 5,604 35,986 6,440 -84.4 % -83.2 % -13.0 % -13.0 %
Subaru 1,012 1,205 1,274 -16.0 % -9.5 % -20.6 % -20.6 %
Tesla 12 - 12 -   -   -1.4 % -1.4 %
Toyota 5,685 7,628 2,556 -25.5 % -19.7 % 122.5 % 122.5 %
Volkswagen Group 478 1,566 1,412 -69.5 % -67.1 % -66.2 % -66.2 %
Industry 116,686 212,647 108,042 -45.1 % -40.9 % 8.0 % 8.0 %

Fleet Penetration

Manufacturer Aug 2020 Forecast Aug 2019 Actual Jul 2020 Actual YoY % Change MoM % Change
BMW 4.6 % 8.1 % 2.4 % -42.6 % 90.3 %
Daimler 2.1 % 5.0 % 3.1 % -59.0 % -34.1 %
FCA 12.3 % 21.6 % 12.1 % -43.1 % 2.2 %
Ford 22.4 % 19.6 % 22.8 % 14.0 % -1.8 %
GM 14.9 % 20.7 % 14.5 % -27.8 % 2.7 %
Honda 0.5 % 0.7 % 0.5 % -34.2 % 6.7 %
Hyundai 6.9 % 8.2 % 6.9 % -15.4 % 0.9 %
Kia 2.7 % 11.4 % 1.9 % -76.3 % 45.5 %
Nissan 7.1 % 28.3 % 8.8 % -74.8 % -18.7 %
Subaru 2.1 % 1.7 % 2.5 % 21.3 % -15.8 %
Tesla 0.1 % 0.0 % 0.1 % -   -2.8 %
Toyota 3.0 % 3.1 % 1.5 % -1.7 % 99.5 %
Volkswagen Group 0.9 % 2.5 % 3.0 % -63.3 % -68.7 %
Industry 8.9 % 12.9 % 8.8 % -30.6 % 1.7 %

Total Market Share

Manufacturer Aug 2020 Forecast Aug 2019 Actual Jul 2020 Actual
BMW 1.7 % 1.8 % 1.9 %
Daimler 1.7 % 1.8 % 2.2 %
FCA 13.1 % 13.0 % 12.8 %
Ford 14.0 % 12.7 % 14.3 %
GM 17.6 % 17.5 % 16.7 %
Honda 10.2 % 10.5 % 10.2 %
Hyundai 4.6 % 4.0 % 4.8 %
Kia 4.3 % 3.7 % 4.3 %
Nissan 6.0 % 7.7 % 6.0 %
Subaru 3.7 % 4.2 % 4.2 %
Tesla 1.2 % 0.8 % 1.3 %
Toyota 14.5 % 15.1 % 13.8 %
Volkswagen Group 4.0 % 3.8 % 3.9 %

Retail Market Share

Manufacturer Aug 2020 Forecast Aug 2019 Actual Jul 2020 Actual
BMW 1.7 % 1.9 % 2.0 %
Daimler 1.8 % 2.0 % 2.3 %
FCA 12.6 % 11.7 % 12.3 %
Ford 11.9 % 11.7 % 12.1 %
GM 16.5 % 16.0 % 15.6 %
Honda 11.1 % 12.0 % 11.2 %
Hyundai 4.7 % 4.2 % 4.9 %
Kia 4.6 % 3.7 % 4.6 %
Nissan 6.2 % 6.3 % 6.0 %
Subaru 4.0 % 4.8 % 4.5 %
Tesla 1.4 % 0.9 % 1.4 %
Toyota 15.4 % 16.8 % 14.9 %
Volkswagen Group 4.3 % 4.2 % 4.1 %

(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG's analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.’s operations.)

About ALG

Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 55 years and in Canada since 1981.

About TrueCar

TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables car buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient car buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings and market context on new and used cars -- all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency and fairness are the foundation of a great car buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers car-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam’s Club, and American Express. Nearly half of all new-car buyers engage with TrueCar powered sites, where they buy smarter and drive happier. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with offices in Austin, Texas and Boston, Massachusetts.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) | Email: pr@truecar.com 


TrueCar and ALG PR Contact:
Shadee Malekafzali shadee@truecar.com
424.258.8694

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Source: TrueCar, Inc.