TrueCar’s ALG Forecasts Vehicle Sales for June and Q2 2020

June 25, 2020
New and used vehicle sales continue to recover from April lows

SANTA MONICA, Calif., June 25, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- ALG, Inc., a subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc. and the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects total new vehicle sales will reach 1,098,960 units in June 2020, down 24% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 13 million units. Excluding fleet sales, ALG expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,014,927 units, a decrease of 15% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

“Automotive retail continues to show positive momentum, rebounding from April lows and performing better than initially expected as states continue to ease restrictions,” said Eric Lyman, Chief Industry Analyst for ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar. “Fleet is now also beginning to show signs of recovery, up twenty-two percent from last month, and we are also seeing significant improvement in the used market, where we expect used car sales to be up sixteen percent month over month.” 

“While used vehicle sales were initially hit harder than new vehicles due to COVID-19 impact, we expect that trend to reverse itself now due to new car inventory shortfalls. Used vehicle inventory is always much larger than new and lease returns have been picking back up, adding a flood of two to three-year-old vehicles back into the used market. Additionally, there’s attractive financing and lower price points which are all helping spur increased demand in the used vehicle market,” added Lyman. 

Additional Insights: (Forecast by ALG)

  • Total retail sales for June 2020 are expected to be down 15% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days and up 1.5% from May 2020 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Fleet sales for June 2020 are expected to be down 68% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days and up 22% from May 2020 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Total SAAR is expected to decrease 25% from a year ago from 17.2 million units to 13 million units.
  • Used vehicle sales for June 2020 are expected to reach 2,719,074, down 20% from a year ago and up 16% from May 2020.
  • The average interest rates on new vehicle loans is 5.99%

“Inventory availability will continue to affect new vehicle sales as a result of production pauses related to COVID-19,” said Nick Woolard Director of OEM and Affinity Partner Analytics at TrueCar. “With no inventory cushion, Tesla’s build-to-order model is expected to result in the brand getting hit the hardest month-over month with production stops completely shutting down order fulfillment. Toyota has also experienced outsized retail sales decline this month compared with other brands due to inventory availability, especially on their popular Toyota Tacoma. In the short-term consumers will likely have a harder time finding exact trims and colors for certain vehicles across the board due to these supply shortages.”

Quarterly Insights: (Forecast by ALG)

  • Total unit sales for Q2 are expected to be down 34% from last year when adjusted for the same number of selling days and down 19% from Q1 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Total retail sales for Q2 are expected to be down 26% from last year when adjusted for the same number of selling days and down 5% from Q1 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

June 2020 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers by volume. For additional data visit the ALG Newsroom.

Total Unit Sales

Manufacturer Jun 2020 Forecast Jun 2019 Actual May 2020 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
MoM % Change MoM % Change  (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW   27,775   34,982   20,052 -20.6 % -17.4 % 38.5 % 44.1 %
Daimler   18,930   29,275   20,958 -35.3 % -32.8 % -9.7 % -6.1 %
FCA   138,478   206,083   137,119 -32.8 % -30.1 % 1.0 % 5.0 %
Ford   150,925   218,691   154,775 -31.0 % -28.2 % -2.5 % 1.4 %
GM   171,626   249,182   175,921 -31.1 % -28.4 % -2.4 % 1.5 %
Honda   107,737   135,901   120,977 -20.7 % -17.6 % -10.9 % -7.4 %
Hyundai   60,585   66,089   58,969 -8.3 % -4.7 % 2.7 % 6.8 %
Kia   48,148   56,801   45,817 -15.2 % -11.8 % 5.1 % 9.3 %
Nissan   68,469   123,504   65,349 -44.6 % -42.3 % 4.8 % 9.0 %
Subaru   58,873   61,511   51,988 -4.3 % -0.5 % 13.2 % 17.8 %
Tesla   6,561   14,400   8,150 -54.4 % -52.6 % -19.5 % -16.3 %
Toyota   147,675   202,352   163,421 -27.0 % -24.1 % -9.6 % -6.0 %
Volkswagen Group   46,683   56,697   42,205 -17.7 % -14.4 % 10.6 % 15.0 %
Industry   1,098,960   1,509,963   1,111,723 -27.2 % -24.3 % -1.1 % 2.8 %

Retail Unit Sales

Manufacturer Jun 2020 Forecast Jun 2019 Actual May 2020 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
MoM % Change MoM % Change  (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW   27,409   33,798   19,709 -18.9 % -15.7 % 39.1 % 44.6 %
Daimler   17,985   27,076   20,250 -33.6 % -30.9 % -11.2 % -7.6 %
FCA   124,062   158,176   131,240 -21.6 % -18.4 % -5.5 % -1.7 %
Ford   121,598   150,291   135,188 -19.1 % -15.9 % -10.1 % -6.5 %
GM   157,258   195,488   156,060 -19.6 % -16.3 % 0.8 % 4.8 %
Honda   107,129   134,685   120,021 -20.5 % -17.3 % -10.7 % -7.2 %
Hyundai   57,708   55,462   55,846 4.0 % 8.2 % 3.3 % 7.5 %
Kia   46,920   51,223   43,317 -8.4 % -4.7 % 8.3 % 12.7 %
Nissan   62,305   85,211   58,900 -26.9 % -24.0 % 5.8 % 10.0 %
Subaru   53,753   55,415   47,969 -3.0 % 0.9 % 12.1 % 16.5 %
Tesla   6,549   14,400   8,150 -54.5 % -52.7 % -19.6 % -16.4 %
Toyota   142,789   179,346   158,423 -20.4 % -17.2 % -9.9 % -6.3 %
Volkswagen Group   44,523   49,248   40,270 -9.6 % -6.0 % 10.6 % 15.0 %
Industry   1,014,927   1,236,347   1,040,054 -17.9 % -14.6 % -2.4 % 1.5 %

Fleet Unit Sales

Manufacturer Jun 2020 Forecast Jun 2019 Actual May 2020 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
MoM % Change MoM % Change  (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW   366   1,184   343 -69.0 % -67.8 % 6.8 % 11.0 %
Daimler   944   2,199   708 -57.1 % -55.3 % 33.5 % 38.8 %
FCA   14,417   47,907   5,879 -69.9 % -68.7 % 145.2 % 155.0 %
Ford   29,327   68,400   19,587 -57.1 % -55.4 % 49.7 % 55.7 %
GM   14,369   53,694   19,861 -73.2 % -72.2 % -27.7 % -24.8 %
Honda   608   1,216   956 -50.0 % -48.0 % -36.4 % -33.8 %
Hyundai   2,877   10,627   3,123 -72.9 % -71.8 % -7.9 % -4.2 %
Kia   1,227   5,578   2,500 -78.0 % -77.1 % -50.9 % -49.0 %
Nissan   6,164   38,293   6,449 -83.9 % -83.3 % -4.4 % -0.6 %
Subaru   5,120   6,096   4,019 -16.0 % -12.6 % 27.4 % 32.5 %
Tesla   12   -    -   -   -   -   -  
Toyota   4,886   23,006   4,998 -78.8 % -77.9 % -2.2 % 1.7 %
Volkswagen Group   2,159   7,449   1,935 -71.0 % -69.9 % 11.6 % 16.0 %
Industry   84,033   273,616   71,669 -69.3 % -68.1 % 17.3 % 21.9 %

Fleet Penetration

Manufacturer Jun 2020 Forecast Jun 2019 Actual May 2020 Actual YoY % Change MoM % Change
BMW 1.3 % 3.4 % 1.7 % -61.0 % -22.9 %
Daimler 5.0 % 7.5 % 3.4 % -33.6 % 47.8 %
FCA 10.4 % 23.2 % 4.3 % -55.2 % 142.8 %
Ford 19.4 % 31.3 % 12.7 % -37.9 % 53.5 %
GM 8.4 % 21.5 % 11.3 % -61.1 % -25.8 %
Honda 0.6 % 0.9 % 0.8 % -36.9 % -28.6 %
Hyundai 4.7 % 16.1 % 5.3 % -70.5 % -10.3 %
Kia 2.5 % 9.8 % 5.5 % -74.0 % -53.3 %
Nissan 9.0 % 31.0 % 9.9 % -71.0 % -8.8 %
Subaru 8.7 % 9.9 % 7.7 % -12.2 % 12.5 %
Tesla 0.2 % 0.0 % 0.0 %  -   -  
Toyota 3.3 % 11.4 % 3.1 % -70.9 % 8.2 %
Volkswagen Group 4.6 % 13.1 % 4.6 % -64.8 % 0.9 %
Industry 7.6 % 18.1 % 6.4 % -57.8 % 18.6 %

Total Market Share

Manufacturer Jun 2020 Forecast Jun 2019 Actual May 2020 Actual
BMW 2.5 % 2.3 % 1.8 %
Daimler 1.7 % 1.9 % 1.9 %
FCA 12.6 % 13.6 % 12.3 %
Ford 13.7 % 14.5 % 13.9 %
GM 15.6 % 16.5 % 15.8 %
Honda 9.8 % 9.0 % 10.9 %
Hyundai 5.5 % 4.4 % 5.3 %
Kia 4.4 % 3.8 % 4.1 %
Nissan 6.2 % 8.2 % 5.9 %
Subaru 5.4 % 4.1 % 4.7 %
Tesla 0.6 % 1.0 % 0.7 %
Toyota 13.4 % 13.4 % 14.7 %
Volkswagen Group 4.2 % 3.8 % 3.8 %

Retail Market Share

Manufacturer Jun 2020 Forecast Jun 2019 Actual May 2020 Actual
BMW 2.7 % 2.7 % 1.9 %
Daimler 1.8 % 2.2 % 1.9 %
FCA 12.2 % 12.8 % 12.6 %
Ford 12.0 % 12.2 % 13.0 %
GM 15.5 % 15.8 % 15.0 %
Honda 10.6 % 10.9 % 11.5 %
Hyundai 5.7 % 4.5 % 5.4 %
Kia 4.6 % 4.1 % 4.2 %
Nissan 6.1 % 6.9 % 5.7 %
Subaru 5.3 % 4.5 % 4.6 %
Tesla 0.6 % 1.2 % 0.8 %
Toyota 14.1 % 14.5 % 15.2 %
Volkswagen Group 4.4 % 4.0 % 3.9 %

Quarterly Tables
Total Unit Sales, Quarterly

Manufacturer Q2 2020 Q2 2019 Q1 2020 YoY % Change YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
QoQ % Change QoQ % Change  (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW   55,983   91,230   65,237 -38.6 % -38.6 % -14.2 % -15.3 %
Daimler   51,166   85,039   69,846 -39.8 % -39.8 % -26.7 % -27.7 %
FCA   368,587   600,434   445,345 -38.6 % -38.6 % -17.2 % -18.3 %
Ford   425,291   644,498   529,556 -34.0 % -34.0 % -19.7 % -20.7 %
GM   485,120   744,316   643,541 -34.8 % -34.8 % -24.6 % -25.6 %
Honda   286,465   407,208   298,726 -29.7 % -29.7 % -4.1 % -5.3 %
Hyundai   154,328   191,548   134,700 -19.4 % -19.4 % 14.6 % 13.1 %
Kia   125,670   168,248   137,851 -25.3 % -25.3 % -8.8 % -10.0 %
Nissan   180,507   351,185   256,703 -48.6 % -48.6 % -29.7 % -30.6 %
Subaru   141,481   182,771   130,590 -22.6 % -22.6 % 8.3 % 6.9 %
Tesla   18,428   36,300   56,200 -49.2 % -49.2 % -67.2 % -67.6 %
Toyota   396,259   608,392   494,668 -34.9 % -34.9 % -19.9 % -20.9 %
Volkswagen Group   116,967   167,694   128,935 -30.2 % -30.2 % -9.3 % -10.5 %
Industry   2,921,510   4,431,851   3,548,037 -34.1 % -34.1 % -17.7 % -18.7 %

Retail Unit Sales, Quarterly

Manufacturer Q2 2020 Q2 2019 Q1 2020 YoY % Change YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
QoQ % Change QoQ % Change  (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW   55,245   88,362   59,172 -37.5 % -37.5 % -6.6 % -7.8 %
Daimler   48,613   79,056   64,985 -38.5 % -38.5 % -25.2 % -26.2 %
FCA   330,214   438,080   325,269 -24.6 % -24.6 % 1.5 % 0.2 %
Ford   342,650   427,648   334,639 -19.9 % -19.9 % 2.4 % 1.1 %
GM   444,506   601,826   447,663 -26.1 % -26.1 % -0.7 % -2.0 %
Honda   284,849   402,815   293,904 -29.3 % -29.3 % -3.1 % -4.3 %
Hyundai   146,999   148,388   107,112 -0.9 % -0.9 % 37.2 % 35.5 %
Kia   122,467   141,334   116,732 -13.3 % -13.3 % 4.9 % 3.6 %
Nissan   164,256   237,538   177,572 -30.9 % -30.9 % -7.5 % -8.7 %
Subaru   129,176   165,116   123,192 -21.8 % -21.8 % 4.9 % 3.5 %
Tesla   18,321   36,300   56,200 -49.5 % -49.5 % -67.4 % -67.8 %
Toyota   383,148   535,550   420,712 -28.5 % -28.5 % -8.9 % -10.1 %
Volkswagen Group   111,556   149,356   113,520 -25.3 % -25.3 % -1.7 % -3.0 %
Industry   2,664,766   3,588,832   2,761,404 -25.7 % -25.7 % -3.5 % -4.8 %

Total Market Share, Quarterly

Manufacturer Q2 2020 Q2 2019 Q1 2020
BMW 1.9 % 2.1 % 1.8 %
Daimler 1.8 % 1.9 % 2.0 %
FCA 12.6 % 13.5 % 12.6 %
Ford 14.6 % 14.5 % 14.9 %
GM 16.6 % 16.8 % 18.1 %
Honda 9.8 % 9.2 % 8.4 %
Hyundai 5.3 % 4.3 % 3.8 %
Kia 4.3 % 3.8 % 3.9 %
Nissan 6.2 % 7.9 % 7.2 %
Subaru 4.8 % 4.1 % 3.7 %
Tesla 0.6 % 0.8 % 1.6 %
Toyota 13.6 % 13.7 % 13.9 %
Volkswagen Group 4.0 % 3.8 % 3.6 %

Retail Market Share, Quarterly

Manufacturer Q2 2020 Q2 2019 Q1 2020
BMW 2.1 % 2.5 % 2.1 %
Daimler 1.8 % 2.2 % 2.4 %
FCA 12.4 % 12.2 % 11.8 %
Ford 12.9 % 11.9 % 12.1 %
GM 16.7 % 16.8 % 16.2 %
Honda 10.7 % 11.2 % 10.6 %
Hyundai 5.5 % 4.1 % 3.9 %
Kia 4.6 % 3.9 % 4.2 %
Nissan 6.2 % 6.6 % 6.4 %
Subaru 4.8 % 4.6 % 4.5 %
Tesla 0.7 % 1.0 % 2.0 %
Toyota 14.4 % 14.9 % 15.2 %
Volkswagen Group 4.2 % 4.2 % 4.1 %

(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG's analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.’s operations.)

About ALG

Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 55 years and in Canada since 1981.

About TrueCar

TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables car buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient car buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings and market context on new and used cars -- all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency and fairness are the foundation of a great car buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers car-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam’s Club, and American Express. Nearly half of all new-car buyers engage with TrueCar powered sites, where they buy smarter and drive happier. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with offices in Austin, Texas and Boston, Massachusetts.


For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) | Email: pr@truecar.com  TrueCar and ALG PR Contact:
Shadee Malekafzali shadee@truecar.com
424.258.8694

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Source: TrueCar, Inc.